Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: a temporal playbook.
Identifieur interne : 000643 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000642; suivant : 000644Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: a temporal playbook.
Auteurs : Giacomo Cacciapaglia [France] ; Corentin Cot [France] ; Francesco Sannino [Danemark, Italie]Source :
- Scientific reports [ 2045-2322 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the World. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-72611-5
PubMed: 32968181
Affiliations:
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Pancini, Università di Napoli Federico II & INFN sezione di Napoli, Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo Edificio 6, via Cintia, 80126, Naples, Italy.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Italie</country><wicri:regionArea>Dipartimento di Fisica E. Pancini, Università di Napoli Federico II & INFN sezione di Napoli, Complesso Universitario di Monte S. Angelo Edificio 6, via Cintia, 80126, Naples</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Naples</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Scientific reports</title><idno type="eISSN">2045-2322</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the World. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.</div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="In-Data-Review" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32968181</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>24</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">2045-2322</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><Volume>10</Volume><Issue>1</Issue><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Sep</Month><Day>23</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Scientific reports</Title><ISOAbbreviation>Sci Rep</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Second wave COVID-19 pandemics in Europe: a temporal playbook.</ArticleTitle><Pagination><MedlinePgn>15514</MedlinePgn></Pagination><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1038/s41598-020-72611-5</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText>A second wave pandemic constitutes an imminent threat to society, with a potentially immense toll in terms of human lives and a devastating economic impact. We employ the epidemic Renormalisation Group (eRG) approach to pandemics, together with the first wave data for COVID-19, to efficiently simulate the dynamics of disease transmission and spreading across different European countries. The framework allows us to model, not only inter and extra European border control effects, but also the impact of social distancing for each country. We perform statistical analyses averaging on different level of human interaction across Europe and with the rest of the World. Our results are neatly summarised as an animation reporting the time evolution of the first and second waves of the European COVID-19 pandemic. Our temporal playbook of the second wave pandemic can be used by governments, financial markets, the industries and individual citizens, to efficiently time, prepare and implement local and global measures.</AbstractText></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cacciapaglia</LastName><ForeName>Giacomo</ForeName><Initials>G</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3426-1618</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institut de Physique des 2 Infinis (IP2I), CNRS/IN2P3, UMR5822, 69622, Villeurbanne, France. g.cacciapaglia@ipnl.in2p3.fr.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Université de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 69001, Lyon, France. g.cacciapaglia@ipnl.in2p3.fr.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Cot</LastName><ForeName>Corentin</ForeName><Initials>C</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Institut de Physique des 2 Infinis (IP2I), CNRS/IN2P3, UMR5822, 69622, Villeurbanne, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Université de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, 69001, Lyon, France.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Sannino</LastName><ForeName>Francesco</ForeName><Initials>F</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>CP3-Origins & the Danish Institute for Advanced Study, University of Southern Denmark, Campusvej 55, 5230, Odense, Denmark.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Dipartimento di Fisica E. 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